Pres. Duterte decides if AFP Modernization Continues

 By Mortz C. Ortigoza

After the hearing on the PNP Modernization Bill last November 26 at the swanky Sison Auditorium in Lingayen, Pangasinan,Congressman Leopoldo Bataoil (2nd District, Pangasinan and PMA ’76) introduced me to Congressman Romeo Acop (2nd District, Antipolo and PMA ’70) as a former personnel of the Tactics at the Philippine Military Academy in the late 1980s when he was one of the tactical officers there.

“Sir, what class are you?” I asked Acop, a lawyer.

“1970”

RAFALE. U.S$101 million apiece French made Dassault
Rafale multi-role jet.Photo Credit: Dassault Aviation

“Oh, your mistah (classmate) was Julius Javier (living legend and hero of the black panther commando the Scout Ranger). He just reacted last week on my blog I posted at Face Book on my article about former U.S General Colin Powel during his stint at Fort Leavenworth in Kansas.

“I’m still seeing Julius; we played golf together with my other “mistahs”.

After I narrated to him that I and my family lived at the RFC near the statue of “young boy” General Gregorio del Pilar when they were still firstie (graduating cadets) in the 1970,I asked Acop, a member of the Oversight Committee of Revised AFP Modernization Program, why it takes several years (2018 to 2022 of Horizon 2) for the AFP to buy a squadron or two squadrons of multiple jets like the U.S made $19 million apiece F-16 bloc C/D, Sweden made  U.S $ 70 million each Saab JAS 39 Gripen, or U.S$101 million apiece French made Dassault Rafale to buttress the Philippines’ defense of her  islands, and reefs at the West Philippines Sea (WPS).

“In case Congress deliberate and fund in 2017 the multi-role jets, funds will be available in 2018, order and delivery of the brand new jets will be on 2019 or 2020, baka ubos na ang isla natin sa WPS in case we keep procrastinating on buying them?"

He told me that the Revised AFP Modernization Act  (RAFPMA) or Republic Act 10349 already funded all the items needed by the AFP up to the end year 2028 of the Horrizon-3.

“The ball now lays on the executive department especially the new president whether he/she supports it, " he told me.

***

When  I asked him in case the tension at the WPS get out of control, why not Congress pass a special appropriation to buy  second hand F-16s or Israeli Kfirs, all multi-role fighters, especially the latter the Israelis offer us in a basement price.

“They were manufactured in the 1970s but their frames and platforms were spruced up to fly for thousands of hours not to mention the warranty given by the Israelis, their new avionics and munitions are at par with the F-16,” I declared.

As what rhk111smilitaryandarmspage.wordpress.com wrote: ‘All Kfirs being sold now are taken from the mothballed stocks of the IAF (Israel Air Force), but are refurbished and upgraded with advanced avionics. The latest version in the market is the “Block 60″ armed with an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, the EL/M-2052. IAI is selling this new version with a 40-year manufacturer’s guarantee for the low price of only USD 20 million each, which would be cheaper than the FA-50 Golden Eagles (priced at U.S $30 million apiece - MCO)”.

Acop said we should instead buy for brand new than procuring those French Mirage III/5 delta-winged inspired Kfir, whose technology the Jews stole from the French after the latter would not sell those hundreds of Mirage III Israeli ordered and paid before the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

***

Here under was my Question and Answer with Congressman Sam Pagdilao (Baron, PMA ‘79) before I and Rep. Acop had a huddle:

MORTZ: May question is not on the PNP Modernization Bill but on the RAFPMA because you and other former military or police officials are members of the Oversight Committee of the military modernization.

Sir, nakita ko kasi sa Horizon-1 (2013 to 2017) 33 military items, dadalawa o tatatlo pa lang nabili ng government iyong fighter-trainer jets sa South Korea and Bell Helicopters sa Canada. Bakit marami ang hindi nabibili sa Horizon-1? Wala bang supurta ang Congress sa procurement?

CONGRESSMAN PAGDILAO: Okay, we are also members of the AFP Modernization Oversight Committee. Tama ka diyan. Una, I observed hindi nabibili hindi nasusunod ng AFP iyong Time Line saka iyong pagbili ng dapat bibilhin according to different Time Lines o Horizons sa bill.

So, wala bang suporta ang Congress?

In fact, may suporta ang Congress sapagkat doon nga nangaling ang batas na ito ang modernization program. Ang kinakailangan dito iyong isang maliwanag na national defense strategy. Iyon ang nakikita nating kawalan. That must be declared, must be insured by the government specially the executive kasi kailangan pang isumiti nila sa Congreso.

M: May pera ba na pondo diyan?

P: Dapat ginugulgol  sa mga priority iyong pera. Minsan nagtatanung kami bakit nababago ang prioridad. Siguro hindi kaila sa inyo nagkaroon na ng decision na imbes na iyong.........

M: P6.5 billion Shore Based Missiles System (SBMS) (a land-based mobile anti-ship missile system from Israeli)....

P: Oo, iyong Shore Based Missiles,sinabi nila na uunahin nila iyong pagbili ng individual na kagamitan like iyong helmets saka iyong mga (bullet) vests  iyong suit. Dapat tanungin sapagkat iyong pera noong modernization dapat  ipagbili ng according to the priority set by the external defense to insure the territorial integrity of course defense system.

Iyong naval capability natin, iyong ating water assets in order to do patrol a country that is archipelagic ang kailangan din iyan para (inaudible) kayang ipag tangol protektahan lahat ng ating territorial claims. Iyan ay, tama kayo diyan, kami naman bilang members ng Oversight Committee ng Armed Forces of the Philippones Modernization tinitingnan namin iyan.

(You can read my selected columns at http://mortzortigoza.blogspot.com and articles at Pangasinan News Aro. You can send comments too attotomortz@yahoo.com)

How cuts from gov’t project are divided

By Mortz C. Ortigoza

Kalabaw na kasali sa fiesta sa Ozamiz City pinagbabaril ng mga pulis.

Kasalukuyang iniimbestigahan pa ng joint teams ng National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) at Criminal Investigation Detection Group (CIDG) kung nang-agaw din ng baril ang kalabaw gaya ng mga drug pushers na pinagpapatay ng mga alagad ng batas.

Here’s an excerpt of the news:

 “CAGAYAN DE ORO CITY – A carabao that was part of the activities of Ozamiz City’s annual fiesta ran amok on Saturday.

Witnesses said the carabao, a full grown male bull, lost its temper when it was paraded around the Birhen sa Cotta grounds where the final judging of street dancing also took place.

The street dancing competition was one of the highlights of the Subayen Keg Subanen Festival”.

***

A big time private contractor with the government told me how he and public officials earn in a, say, ten million pesos farm-to-market road in a town.

“15 percent lang ang tubo ko diyan. 15 percent bigay ko sa congressman, 5 percent sa DPWH (Department of Public Works & Highway) for the boys nila to divide, and 10 percent kay mayor,” he enumerated.

He cited that before he wins the bidding for the project at the DPWH, he first get the nod of the other two bidders (required by law) who would quote the first two highest bid to make the project so they would lose while my source, who bids the lowest ten million project wins.

Cops should liaise with PDEA prior to Drug Raid – Director Tacio

By Mortz C. Ortigoza

DAGUPAN CITY – The new regional chief of the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency in Region 1 said that all operations of the Philippine National Police on the implementation of raids and searches against suspected dangerous drug personalities should be coordinated with the PDEA.

PDEA. Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency’s Regional Director Jeoffrey C. Tacio 

poses with Dagupan City Mayor Belen T. Fernandez at the world class Stadia during the

 turn-over ceremony of the new Chief of Police (COP) Superintendent Niel Miro from 
outgoing COP Christopher Abrahano. PHOTO: Mortz C. Ortigoza

“Hinde hinde, they have to coordinate prior to the operation,” stressed by Regional Director Jeoffrey C. Tacio, when asked if the police can coordinate after their raid or search on the residence or den of drug personalities.

According to the The Comprehensive Dangerous Drugs Act of 2002 or Republic Act No. 9165 and PNP Manual on Anti-Illegal Drugs Operation and Investigation, a PNP unit, prior to any anti-drug operations shall, as far as practicable, coordinate with the PDEA.

Even after the raid or search, it says there that “(b) In any case, the PNP anti-drug units shall coordinate or inform the PDEA of the anti-drug operation within 24 hours from the time of the actual custody of the suspects or seizure of said drugs and substances as well as paraphernalia and transport equipment used in illegal activities involving such drugs and/or substances and shall regularly update the PDEA on the status of the cases involving the said anti-drug operation. (Section 86 (a) IRR RA 9165); (c.) The word “As far as practicable” as being used in Section 86, IRR, RA 9165, means that which prior coordination with the PDEA may be done, practiced or accomplished and which is feasible and possible to be performed”.

Crime drops by 40% in this city, thanks to Drugs War

By Mortz C. Ortigoza

Opposite to the pronouncement of naysayers that the war on drugs launched by President Rodrigo Duterte is destined to fail, just like in Thailand, had just been rebutted by a battle scared senior non-commissioned police officer whose equivalent rank  in the military is master sergeant.

In an interview with him, he told me that not only peddling of illegal drugs in Urdaneta City, Pangasinan – known as one of the top bailiwicks of narcotics peddlers in my province, had dropped but three of its 34 villages have been declared as narcotics-free.

Urdaneta City Mayor Amadeo "Bobom" G.E. Perez IV excitedly told me that these dope free villages are Cabaruan, Otama, and Tipuso.

“You go to Superintendent Marcelino Desamito and asked him for more details on these three barangays,” Perez told me and his favorite media man, who drops by at his office weekly, Harold Barcelona.

Instead of Desamito, who was busy talking with some Muslim elders, we faced the police “sergeant major”  who said index crime like robbery, theft, and others decreased by 40 percent because of the war on drugs.

Death reasons confessed drug users, pushers yield

By Mortz C. Ortigoza

DAGUPAN CITY – The fear of death was the main reason why two former dangerous drug users submitted recently themselves to the mayor and the police here to pledge in an affidavit to forego their habit.

JUNKIES AND DOPE PEDDLERS. Self-confessed narcotics users and pushers from the “notorious” Sitio Aling Barangay  Pantal near  Arellano Street have voluntarily surrendered to Dagupan City’s OIC Chief of Police Supt. Neil O. Miro.

The “surrenderees” have been accompanied to the police station by Pantal Barangay Chairman Julie Anne Perez. PHOTO CREDIT: Dagupan City’s PNP

“Ayaw ko pang mamatay sir, user ako gumagamit lang (I don’t want to die sir. I was only a user),” quipped by 24 years old Reggie Castillo inside the mayor’s office here to Northern Watch.

He said he is unemployed after his employer in a mall did not renew his contract.

“I used to have a job where a portion of my salary I used to buy shabu to finance my drug habit”.

Castillo, just like the other self- declared drug users and pushers surrendered to the police and this city’s mayor Belen T. Fernandez, said they used shabu or meta-amphetamine hydrochloride that can be bought for P100 toP300 per sachet.

Allan, not his real name, cited that he surrendered, too, because he feared death from death squads who roamed using a motorcycle the residences of the drug suspects before they assassinate through a 45 caliber handgun their unguarded target.

“Kasi natatakot po ako,” he quipped by hiding his head using a towel as cameras of TV stations pan on the almost 50 drug personalities who submitted themselves here.

He said he came from Manaoag but lives in Barangay Bacayao here where he used to peddle clothes.

Allan said he is presently unemployed.

“It has been a long time that I did not use shabu but the village chief included me on the list so I could not do anything”.

The processing of those surrenderees to forego using narcotics was held either at the mayor’s office, the villages’ gyms, or the police station.

Upon assumption of President Rodrigo Duterte, who won the election on an aggressive drugs war cry, hundreds of suspected and self –declared drug pushers and users surrendered to the mayor, former Chief of Police (COP) Superintendent Cris Abrahano and incumbent COP Supt. Niel Miro.

Those who surrendered were accompanied by their respective barangay chairmen.

Fernandez cited that those who submitted themselves to pledge not to go back in their habit do not mean that they are no longer answerable to the law as they will still be placed under surveillance by the Philippine National Police.

Cops collar suspected bomb -maker in M'lang, Cotabato

                              ( REPRINTED FROM PNP'S COTABATO PROVINCE REPORT)

On September 6, 2016, at about 4:00 o’clock in the afternoon, Cotabato PoliceProvincial Office (CPPO) led by PSSUPT EMMANUEL BALOLOY PERALTA, Acting Provincial Director of CPPO; CPPSF Personnel; 45th SAC SAF; 2nd MC RPSB-12; 7th IB PA; Mlang MPS Personnel and 6O2nd Brigade PA troops jointly conducted Law Enforcement Operation (LEO) by implementing Search Warrants against aforementioned suspects at Purok 6, Brgy. Dunguan, Mlang, Cotabato for Violation of PD 1866 as amended by RA 10591 and RA 9516 (Illegal Possession of Explosives).

 Both suspects are identified IED-maker and nowhere to be found in their residence during the Search Warrant Implementation, however in the first target (Anwar Sandigan’s residence), the following explosives and IED components were seized from his residence, to wit; (a) one unit M67 Model Fragmentation Grenade, (b) six (6) pieces ordinary blasting cap No. 8, (c) thirty (30) inches ten grain detonating cord, (d) one (1) piece Nokia Cell phone, (e) one (1) piece QQ400 M&L mobile Cell phone, (f) one (1) piece 6120 Nokia Cell phone, (g) two (2) pieces slide switch assembly, (h) two (2) pieces 9 volts Eveready Battery, (i) one (1) piece soldering gun, (j) one (1) piece Samua YX- 360TR circuit tester, (k) seven (7) pieces AAA 1.5 volts Battery, (l) one (1) piece BT-168 Battery tester, (m) two (2) pieces test light, (n) two (2) pieces circuit board, (o) twenty (20) pieces Christmas light with red and black leg wire, (p) two (2) pieces 2P4M silicone controlled rectifier (SCR), (q) three (3) pieces 9 volts new leader battery, (r) one (1) piece AA Kingever 1,5 volts Battery, (s) two (2) pieces diode, (t) two (2) pieces slide switch, (u) one (1) piece remote control, (v) one(1) piece GDlite power supply, (w) undetermined amount of black powder, (x) five (5) pieces of Battery holder with capacitor, (y) one (1) piece Cell phone charger, (z) twenty six (26) pieces light emitting diode, (aa) one (1) piece unidentified cell phone, (bb) three (3) pieces circuit board, (cc) two (2) roles electrical stranded wire.

Exec Denies BIR-Tagged as One of the Most Corrupt Agencies

"It takes two to tango"

By Mortz C. Ortigoza

CALASIAO – The regional director of the BIR in Region 1 disagreed to the tag that the agency is one of the most corrupt offices in the country.

EXEC. BIR Region 1 Regional

 Director Marina de Guzman

“It takes two to tango, ‘di ba? Hinde lang po taga BIR, mga taxpayers diyan na naiimbistigahan siguro nabibigatan sila sa laki ng assessment bribing examiners nandoon ang temptation,” Director Marina de Guzman stressed.

She said that 98 percent of the BIR’s tax collection came from the voluntary taxpayers where BIR personnel do not need to directly transact with them.

De Guzman cited that it is only two percent of the taxpayers that the BIR personnel have to physically make contact to prompt them to pay the correct taxes.

She said that BIR Commissioner Cesar Dulay suspended until further notice the much criticized Electronic- Letter of Authority (ELA), letters, and notices to these two percent of taxpayers.

De Guzman cited that the tax agency has to soldier- on for the 14 billion pesos it was mandated to collect in the four provinces’ region this year despite its being 42 percent higher than the previous year’s tax goal.

“380 lang ang personnel namin kulang na kulang pero sa plaintilla ng Executive Order 366 ang aming warm bodies ay 835. We are working on a 45 percent workforce lang po rito. Nakikiusap po ako sa mga taxpayers, account tax agents magkapit bisig tayo kung may alam kayo na hinde na cover sa ating tax data base ipag paalam ninyo lang po sa aming opisina 8:00 to 5:00 pm,” she stressed.

Meanwhile, Maria Isabel B. Utit and Ariel M. Calabia have remain unscathed on the first revamped of all six revenue district office (RDO) chiefs in Region-1 after the Duterte Administration released on August 15 the Revenue Travel Assignment Order No. 168-2016 for 55 RDO chiefs all over the country.

“The concerned officials are directed to report to their new assignments on or before August 31, 2016. They shall strictly comply with the provision of Revenue Memorandum Order No. 38-2011 dated September 16, as amended by Revenue Memorandum Order No. 39-2011 dated October 15, 2011, regarding turn-over of all accountabilities and compliance to issued RTAOs covering transfer of personnel. This order takes effect immediately,” contained at the RTA’s No. 168-2016 and signed by Bureau of Internal Revenue's Commissioner Dulay.

 Utit, a Certified Public Accountant-Lawyer, and Calabia are the present RDO chiefs of Urdaneta City and Laoag City, respectively.

In the latest RTAO it shows that RDO-2 chief Eduardo Obero based in Vigan City, Ilocos Sur was assigned to head RDO-52 in Paranaque City, RDO-3 OIC Chief Luis Alberto, Jr based in San Fernando City, La Union was assigned as OIC RDO-61 chief in Gumaca, Quezon, RDO- 4 Chief Fely Simon based here was assigned as RD0-34 chief in Paco, Pandacan, Sta. Ana Areas, and RD0-5 Chief Josephine Catamco based in Alaminos City, Pangasinan was assigned as OIC –RDO chief of RDO-87 in Catbalogan, Samar.

The new RDO bosses in the Ilocos Region are RDO-2 Chief Aldo B. Esmena (Ilocos Sur), RDO-3 Chief Ernesto Mangabat (La Union), RDO-4 Chief Merlyn Vicente (Central Pangasinan), and RDO-5 Chief Jose Maria Hernandez (Western Pangasinan).

Sulat ng pamamaalam ni misis kay mister

(REPRINTED)

Asawa ko..

Hon, madaling araw kn nmn nakauwi galing sa mga kaibigan mo.. Di mo mn lng ako ginising at di pinansin ang aking bagong nighties..

Ngresign kn pla sa work mo at wala na balak ituloy ang pangingibang bansa..wala ka talaga pangarap sa buhay! Di mo mn lng nabanggit sakin..Buti nlng naitsismis sakin ng kpitbahay nting tsismosa.

Alam mo nmn na ayaw ko nawawalan ng pera .. Takot ako magutom at di ko rin pinangarap na hbambuhay manatili sa maliit na bahay na to.. At iyon ang ipinangako mo sakin!

Wag ka sanang mabibigla , sumama n ko sa kaibigan kong c kervy.. Mabuti pa xa may pangarap na mag abroad pra mging maayos ang buhay..salamat sa lhat at wag mo n ko hanapin pa..

Paalam na..

Asawa mo..

Sagot ni mr sa sulat ni misis..

Asawa ko ,

Hon sori ha , napasarap lng po sa kwentuhan ng tropa.. Naamoy ko n bgong paligo ka at bago rin ang iyong nighties.. Di mo pa nga naalis tag price na 999.95php.. Di na lang kita ginising dhil alam ko pagod ka sa gawaing bahay ..

Sadyang di ko sinabi n ngresign na ko.. Gusto sana kita sorpresahin .. Tumama ko ng 275 millon pesos sa lotto last week.. At ngayon sana ang lipat ntin sa bgong bili kong bahay sa isang eksklusibong subv. sa QC.. At nkahanda nrin ang trip ntin sa Paris at Germany..

Si kervy? Kya pla maaga xa umuwi pagkaabot ko ng balato tig 5,000 sa tropa...

Wag ka mag alala hon.. Di n kita pag abalahan hanapin pa.. Ayon kay attorney sapat

na ang nilalaman ng sulat mo para mawalan ka ng karapatan sa binili kong bahay at sa perang napanalunan ko sa lotto..

Paalam nrin po at sanay mging maligaya ka sa drug addict na sinamahan mo..

Dati mong asawa..

Ps eto nga pla bgo ko labandera..

5000 Direct Jobs for Dagupenos - Mayor BTF

DAGUPAN CITY - This burgeoning city's mayor met recently executives of the Information Technology and Business Process Management's industry where they discussed plans how the local government unit  can draw IT-BPM investors and provide jobs for the people here.

IT-BPM. Dagupan City Mayor Belen T. Fernandez (6th from left) rubs elbows
 with executives of the Information Technology and Business Process
 Management (IT-BPM) industry in the country.

 Mayor Belen T. Fernandez fervent hopes that her constituents can get a share in the mammoth U.S $25 billion industry and create 5,000 direct jobs in the next three years in the City.

One of the most dynamic and fastest growing sectors in the Philippines,  the industry is composed of eight sub-sectors, namely, knowledge process outsourcing and back offices, animation, call centers, software development, game development, engineering design, and medical transcription. 

Joining Mayor Fernandez in the IT-BPM Conference held at the world class Stadia here were Jonathan De Luzuriaga- President of the Philippine Software Industry, lawyer Jocelle Sigue- Board of Trustee of the National ICT Confederation of the Philippines, Paul Tajon-Senior Investment Specialist, Alvin Juban- President of the Game Developers Association of the Philippines, Natalie Hunter- Executive Director of the Philippines Software Industry Association.

Students from different colleges and universities were part of last Friday's Conference as the mayor embarked on a mission of creating the City's ICT-Business Process Management Industry. 

Funny Incidents In My Radio Work

Interview today, at our 9 to 10 Am radio program at Sonshine Radio,  was the new provincial immigration chief Paulino Verzosa, some excerpts:

CHIEF: We strictly monitored foreign students. At nakapagtataka , dito nagtatakbuhan iyong mga Western Africans.

ME; Saka mukhang galit itong mga taga Nigeria at India sa roll – on at deodorant, ayaw ba nila ng deodorant?

AUDREY: (Laughing)

ME: Hinde ba sila pinagsasabihan ng Immigration that they can buy “tawas” for five pesos only, very cheap?

CHIEF:  Iyan ang tinatanung namin sa kanila….

ME: What’s your perfume?....

CHIEF: …..Did you take a bath already? Kasi lahat kami nakatakip na ng ilong  (sa Immigration Office).

ME: Sir, iyong De Facto Ambassador ng India to Pangasinan si Ashok Vasandani nag courtesy call na sa inyo?

CHIEF AND AUDREY: (LAUGHED)

CHIEF: Hinde pa nag courtesy call.

ME: So delikado ang mga mga Bombay na nagpapa 5/6. Ashok magpakita ka na sa New Duterte Administration Immigration Chief Paulino Verzosa.

CHIEF: De Facto, De Facto magandang pakinggan. He holds the jobs without the title.

ME: Oo, ang De Facto kalaban ng mga Impakto. 

                                                BELOW:  MORTZ'S RADIO WORK VIDEO 

*** 

IMMIGRATION OFFICE NOT NUTRITION OFFICE. 

Nagkamali si Errand Boy Galman ko. Yesterday, I told him to go to the Immigration Office so I can set for today my interview with the new provincial immigration chief at my 9 to 10 Am radio program. Anak ng bakang dalaga, ito ang nangyari, a pretty head of the Nutrition Office arrived at our radio station kasi ni set ni Galman na siya interview ko. Although I did not research for my interview with Ms Anna Fernandez, chief of the City Nutrition Office, here was the excerpt of the Q & A:

ME; So kelangan talaga ang gatas ng ina sa baby?

Stingy reelectionist senator lost bid

By Mortz C. Ortigoza

When I, some media men, 29 village chiefs, and Sta. Barbara Mayor Carlito Zaplan waited last December for the arrival of reelectionist senator at the new swanky municipal hall of the first class Pangasinan town, I told the mayor that this solon was a tightwad.

 I cited that the driver of the SUV loaned to him in Pangasinan complained that after several days he drove the senator, who was out in the Magic 12 for the senate at polls, for a husting in the various towns, the latter pressed tightly his hand and thank him for his service.

“Hinde man lang nag iwan ng pang beer!,” the driver told me.

When Mayor Zaplan heard this story he told me that the solon would not get the support of the village chiefs if he became cheapskate after the consultations.

After every barangay chairmen redressed their grievances and submitted their infrastructure projects request to the solon, he told them: O, salamat sa pagdating ninyo at panahon na para umuwi at uminom ng Emperador (a poor man’s liquor that is pegged at P75 per long neck bottle)".

Before the dust settled from the convoys of the senator, some village chiefs asked their colleagues if the solon left some sum for the “Emperador”.

 “Wala naman!,” one answered in disbelief.

“Pag ganoon, i-zero sa election. Kuripot pala,” a barangay kapitan shouted in a group.

At the May 12 tabulation of the Commission on Election the reelectionist senator was out in the Magic 12 where political clowns but generous candidates’ boxer Manny Pacquiao and comedian Tito Sotto dominated.

***

Grace still lose even Roxas, Binay withdraw.

Two days before the acrimonious and divisive May 9, 2016 presidential election, President Benigno Aquino III analyzed as quoted by the Philippine Inquirer last May 7: “It behooves everybody to try and get together and ensure that instead of thinking about what shall we do if everything he says is exactly what he intends to do, why don’t we remove that problem or that threat or that insecurity by uniting the 70 and defeating the 30?”.

Roxas echoed the president’s exhortation by calling Poe to discuss a possible alliance in order to avoid a victory from current frontrunner Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte.

Analyst Popoy De Vera opined at DZMM as quoted by Tempo newspaper:

“Mathematically and based on survey data, mas mananalo yung kung si Mar ang mag-gigive way kay Grace Poe rather than Grace Poe giving way to Mar,” De Vera said.

The political analyst went on to cite survey data on second-choice candidates.

“Doon sa survey na ginawa, tinanong ‘yung mga supporters ng mga kandidato, kung hindi tumuloy ‘yung first choice na presidential candidate, sino and second choice niyo. Doon sa mga nagsabi na si Mar ang first choice nila, 41% sa kanila ang second choice nila si Grace,” De Vera explained.

As a self styled anal-list, er analyst, whose analysis thrive only among beer drinkers, please allow me to dispute the president and de Vera’s prognosis. I disagreed with them in my blog I posted two days before the election.

Here was my take:

The May 1 to 3 polls of Social Weather Station (1,200 respondents 3 + - margin of error (MOE) bare that Duterte led by 33%, Poe by 22%, Roxas by 20%, Binay by 13%, and Merriam Santiago (was she that presidential bet who had a hard time standing in the last debate?) by 2%:

But SWS's tabulation did not provide for the second presidential preference of the 54 million voters.

To make this analogy real I will used therefore as my gauge Pulse Asia’s April 26 to 29 (4000 respondents 1+- MOE) polls - where its leading candidates at SWS May 1 to 3 were almost the same.

Pulse Asia explained on its April 26-29 polls that 41 % of Roxas and Binay’s voters would vote for Poe in case the first two withdraw before the May 9 election.

It also cited that 16% and 21% Roxas and Binay’s voters, respectively, would vote for Duterte.

ANALYSIS

Here’s my analysis basing on the realignment of the statistics among the aspirants involved:

If Roxas withdraws the following would be the votes of Poe and Duterte:

POE: 22% (SWS) plus 8.2% (41%from Roxas) equal 30.2%

DUTERTE: 33% (SWS) plus 5.28% (16% from Roxas) equal 38.28%.

Conclusion: Duterte wins by 8.08% or 4,363,200 voters (from 1% or 540,000 voters) lead.

If Roxas and Binay withdraw the following would be the votes of Poe and Duterte:

POE: 22% (SWS) plus 8.2% (41% from Roxas) plus 5.33% (13% Binay) equal 35.55%

DUTERTE: 33% (SWS) plus 5.28% (16% from Roxas) plus 2.73% (from 21% from Binay) equal 41.01%.

Conclusion: Duterte wins by 5.46% or 2,948,400 voters lead.

Even this self styled analyst would vote for Poe because of her clear cut economic policies, he was just doing this analysis to dispute the president, Popoy, and other self-styled anal-list, er, analysts out there that numbers don’t lie.

(You can read my selected columns at http://mortzortigoza.blogspot.com and articles at Pangasinan News Aro. You can send comments too at totomortz@yahoo.com)