By Mortz C. Ortigoza
When I, some media men, 29 village chiefs, and Sta. Barbara Mayor Carlito Zaplan waited last December for the arrival of reelectionist senator at the new swanky municipal hall of the first class Pangasinan town, I told the mayor that this solon was a tightwad.
I cited that the driver of the SUV loaned to him in Pangasinan complained that after several days he drove the senator, who was out in the Magic 12 for the senate at polls, for a husting in the various towns, the latter pressed tightly his hand and thank him for his service.
“Hinde man lang nag iwan ng pang beer!,” the driver told me.
When Mayor Zaplan heard this story he told me that the solon would not get the support of the village chiefs if he became cheapskate after the consultations.
After every barangay chairmen redressed their grievances and submitted their infrastructure projects request to the solon, he told them: O, salamat sa pagdating ninyo at panahon na para umuwi at uminom ng Emperador (a poor man’s liquor that is pegged at P75 per long neck bottle)".
Before the dust settled from the convoys of the senator, some village chiefs asked their colleagues if the solon left some sum for the “Emperador”.
“Wala naman!,” one answered in disbelief.
“Pag ganoon, i-zero sa election. Kuripot pala,” a barangay kapitan shouted in a group.
At the May 12 tabulation of the Commission on Election the reelectionist senator was out in the Magic 12 where political clowns but generous candidates’ boxer Manny Pacquiao and comedian Tito Sotto dominated.
***
Grace still lose even Roxas, Binay withdraw.
Two days before the acrimonious and divisive May 9, 2016 presidential election, President Benigno Aquino III analyzed as quoted by the Philippine Inquirer last May 7: “It behooves everybody to try and get together and ensure that instead of thinking about what shall we do if everything he says is exactly what he intends to do, why don’t we remove that problem or that threat or that insecurity by uniting the 70 and defeating the 30?”.
Roxas echoed the president’s exhortation by calling Poe to discuss a possible alliance in order to avoid a victory from current frontrunner Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte.
Analyst Popoy De Vera opined at DZMM as quoted by Tempo newspaper:
“Mathematically and based on survey data, mas mananalo yung kung si Mar ang mag-gigive way kay Grace Poe rather than Grace Poe giving way to Mar,” De Vera said.
The political analyst went on to cite survey data on second-choice candidates.
“Doon sa survey na ginawa, tinanong ‘yung mga supporters ng mga
kandidato, kung hindi tumuloy ‘yung first choice na presidential candidate, sino and second choice niyo. Doon sa mga nagsabi na si Mar ang first choice nila, 41% sa kanila ang second choice nila si Grace,” De Vera explained.
As a self styled anal-list, er analyst, whose analysis thrive only among beer drinkers, please allow me to dispute the president and de Vera’s prognosis. I disagreed with them in my blog I posted two days before the election.
Here was my take:
The May 1 to 3 polls of Social Weather Station (1,200 respondents 3 + - margin of error (MOE) bare that Duterte led by 33%, Poe by 22%, Roxas by 20%, Binay by 13%, and Merriam Santiago (was she that presidential bet who had a hard time standing in the last debate?) by 2%:
But SWS's tabulation did not provide for the second presidential preference of the 54 million voters.
To make this analogy real I will used therefore as my gauge Pulse Asia’s April 26 to 29 (4000 respondents 1+- MOE) polls - where its leading candidates at SWS May 1 to 3 were almost the same.
Pulse Asia explained on its April 26-29 polls that 41 % of Roxas and Binay’s voters would vote for Poe in case the first two withdraw before the May 9 election.
It also cited that 16% and 21% Roxas and Binay’s voters, respectively, would vote for Duterte.
ANALYSIS
Here’s my analysis basing on the realignment of the statistics among the aspirants involved:
If Roxas withdraws the following would be the votes of Poe and Duterte:
POE: 22% (SWS) plus 8.2% (41%from Roxas) equal 30.2%
DUTERTE: 33% (SWS) plus 5.28% (16% from Roxas) equal 38.28%.
Conclusion: Duterte wins by 8.08% or 4,363,200 voters (from 1% or 540,000 voters) lead.
If Roxas and Binay withdraw the following would be the votes of Poe and Duterte:
POE: 22% (SWS) plus 8.2% (41% from Roxas) plus 5.33% (13% Binay) equal 35.55%
DUTERTE: 33% (SWS) plus 5.28% (16% from Roxas) plus 2.73% (from 21% from Binay) equal 41.01%.
Conclusion: Duterte wins by 5.46% or 2,948,400 voters lead.
Even this self styled analyst would vote for Poe because of her clear cut economic policies, he was just doing this analysis to dispute the president, Popoy, and other self-styled anal-list, er, analysts out there that numbers don’t lie.
(You can read my selected columns at http://mortzortigoza.blogspot.com and articles at Pangasinan News Aro. You can send comments too at totomortz@yahoo.com)
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