Saturday, May 7, 2016

Duterte still win even Roxas, Binay withdraw

By Mortz C. Ortigoza

 Three days before the May 9 presidential election, I read President Benigno Aquino and political analyst Popoy de Vera exhorted presidential aspirant Mar Roxas particularly to make an exemplary sacrifice to save this country from the perceive looming dictatorial government of presidential front runner Rodrigo Duterte.
President Aquino analyzed as quoted by the Philippine Inquirer last May 7: “It behooves everybody to try and get together and ensure that instead of thinking about what shall we do if everything he says is exactly what he intends to do, why don’t we remove that problem or that threat or that insecurity by uniting the 70 and defeating the 30?”.
Roxas echoed the president’s exhortation last Friday by calling Poe to discuss a possible alliance in order to avoid a victory from current frontrunner Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte.

De Vera opined last Saturday at DZMM as quoted by Tempo newspaper:
Mathematically and based on survey data, mas mananalo yung kung si Mar ang mag-gigive way kay Grace Poe rather than Grace Poe giving way to Mar,” De Vera said.
The political analyst went on to cite survey data on second-choice candidates.
“Doon sa survey na ginawa, tinanong ‘yung mga supporters ng mga kandidato, kung hindi tumuloy ‘yung first choice na presidential candidate, sino and second choice niyo. Doon sa mga nagsabi na si Mar ang first choice nila, 41% sa kanila ang second choice nila si Grace,” De Vera explained.

As a self styled anal-list, er analyst, whose analysis thrive only among beer drinkers, please allow me to dispute the president and de Vera’s prognosis.

The May 1 to 3 polls of Social Weather Station (1,200 respondents 3 + - margin of error (MOE) bare that Duterte led by 33%, Poe by 22%, Roxas by 20%, Binay by 13%, and Merriam Santiago (was she that presidential bet who had a hard time standing in the last debate?) by 2%:

But SWS's tabulation did not provide for the second presidential preference of the 54 million voters. 
To make this analogy real I will used therefore as my gauge Pulse Asia’s April 26 to 29 (4000 respondents 1+- MOE) polls - where its leading candidates at SWS May 1 to 3 were almost the same.

Pulse Asia explained on its April 26-29 polls that 41 % of Roxas and Binay’s voters would vote for Poe in case the first two withdraw before the May 9 election.
It also cited that 16% and 21% Roxas and Binay’s voters, respectively, would vote for Duterte.

Here’s my analysis basing on the realignment of the statistics among the aspirants involved:
If Roxas withdraws the following would be the votes of Poe and Duterte:
POE: 22% (SWS) plus 8.2% (41% from Roxas) equal 30.2%
DUTERTE: 33% (SWS) plus 5.28% (16% from Roxas) equal 38.28%.

Conclusion: Duterte wins by 8.08% or 4,363,200 voters (from 1% or 540,000 voters) lead.

If Roxas and Binay withdraw the following would be the votes of Poe and Duterte:
POE: 22% (SWS) plus 8.2% (41% from Roxas) plus 5.33% (13% Binay) equal 35.55%
DUTERTE: 33% (SWS) plus 5.28% (16% from Roxas) plus 2.73% (from 21% from Binay) equal 41.01%.

 Conclusion: Duterte wins by 5.46% or 2,948,400 voters lead.
Even this self styled analyst would vote for Poe because of her clear cut economic policies, he was just doing this analysis to dispute the president, Popoy, and other self-styled anal-list, er, analysts out there that numbers don’t lie.

As of press time, President Aquino has one day to crack his head how to frustrate Duterte’s choo-choo train.
 My mole in Malacanang told me for a week now the president had sleepless night and mental anguished imagining how a Duterte administraton could do to this country and to him.
Experts said he, Roxas, Binay, and others in the Palace go to jail under the Duterte’s Administration on the non-bailable plunder cases like the fracas brought by the Disbursement Acceleration Fund and the MRT contract’s fiasco.

(You can read my selected columns at and articles at Pangasinan News Aro. You can send comments too at

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