Stingy reelectionist senator lost bid

By Mortz C. Ortigoza

When I, some media men, 29 village chiefs, and Sta. Barbara Mayor Carlito Zaplan waited last December for the arrival of reelectionist senator at the new swanky municipal hall of the first class Pangasinan town, I told the mayor that this solon was a tightwad.

 I cited that the driver of the SUV loaned to him in Pangasinan complained that after several days he drove the senator, who was out in the Magic 12 for the senate at polls, for a husting in the various towns, the latter pressed tightly his hand and thank him for his service.

“Hinde man lang nag iwan ng pang beer!,” the driver told me.

When Mayor Zaplan heard this story he told me that the solon would not get the support of the village chiefs if he became cheapskate after the consultations.

After every barangay chairmen redressed their grievances and submitted their infrastructure projects request to the solon, he told them: O, salamat sa pagdating ninyo at panahon na para umuwi at uminom ng Emperador (a poor man’s liquor that is pegged at P75 per long neck bottle)".

Before the dust settled from the convoys of the senator, some village chiefs asked their colleagues if the solon left some sum for the “Emperador”.

 “Wala naman!,” one answered in disbelief.

“Pag ganoon, i-zero sa election. Kuripot pala,” a barangay kapitan shouted in a group.

At the May 12 tabulation of the Commission on Election the reelectionist senator was out in the Magic 12 where political clowns but generous candidates’ boxer Manny Pacquiao and comedian Tito Sotto dominated.

***

Grace still lose even Roxas, Binay withdraw.

Two days before the acrimonious and divisive May 9, 2016 presidential election, President Benigno Aquino III analyzed as quoted by the Philippine Inquirer last May 7: “It behooves everybody to try and get together and ensure that instead of thinking about what shall we do if everything he says is exactly what he intends to do, why don’t we remove that problem or that threat or that insecurity by uniting the 70 and defeating the 30?”.

Roxas echoed the president’s exhortation by calling Poe to discuss a possible alliance in order to avoid a victory from current frontrunner Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte.

Analyst Popoy De Vera opined at DZMM as quoted by Tempo newspaper:

“Mathematically and based on survey data, mas mananalo yung kung si Mar ang mag-gigive way kay Grace Poe rather than Grace Poe giving way to Mar,” De Vera said.

The political analyst went on to cite survey data on second-choice candidates.

“Doon sa survey na ginawa, tinanong ‘yung mga supporters ng mga kandidato, kung hindi tumuloy ‘yung first choice na presidential candidate, sino and second choice niyo. Doon sa mga nagsabi na si Mar ang first choice nila, 41% sa kanila ang second choice nila si Grace,” De Vera explained.

As a self styled anal-list, er analyst, whose analysis thrive only among beer drinkers, please allow me to dispute the president and de Vera’s prognosis. I disagreed with them in my blog I posted two days before the election.

Here was my take:

The May 1 to 3 polls of Social Weather Station (1,200 respondents 3 + - margin of error (MOE) bare that Duterte led by 33%, Poe by 22%, Roxas by 20%, Binay by 13%, and Merriam Santiago (was she that presidential bet who had a hard time standing in the last debate?) by 2%:

But SWS's tabulation did not provide for the second presidential preference of the 54 million voters.

To make this analogy real I will used therefore as my gauge Pulse Asia’s April 26 to 29 (4000 respondents 1+- MOE) polls - where its leading candidates at SWS May 1 to 3 were almost the same.

Pulse Asia explained on its April 26-29 polls that 41 % of Roxas and Binay’s voters would vote for Poe in case the first two withdraw before the May 9 election.

It also cited that 16% and 21% Roxas and Binay’s voters, respectively, would vote for Duterte.

ANALYSIS

Here’s my analysis basing on the realignment of the statistics among the aspirants involved:

If Roxas withdraws the following would be the votes of Poe and Duterte:

POE: 22% (SWS) plus 8.2% (41%from Roxas) equal 30.2%

DUTERTE: 33% (SWS) plus 5.28% (16% from Roxas) equal 38.28%.

Conclusion: Duterte wins by 8.08% or 4,363,200 voters (from 1% or 540,000 voters) lead.

If Roxas and Binay withdraw the following would be the votes of Poe and Duterte:

POE: 22% (SWS) plus 8.2% (41% from Roxas) plus 5.33% (13% Binay) equal 35.55%

DUTERTE: 33% (SWS) plus 5.28% (16% from Roxas) plus 2.73% (from 21% from Binay) equal 41.01%.

Conclusion: Duterte wins by 5.46% or 2,948,400 voters lead.

Even this self styled analyst would vote for Poe because of her clear cut economic policies, he was just doing this analysis to dispute the president, Popoy, and other self-styled anal-list, er, analysts out there that numbers don’t lie.

(You can read my selected columns at http://mortzortigoza.blogspot.com and articles at Pangasinan News Aro. You can send comments too at totomortz@yahoo.com)

M'LANG Election Returns: 84 of 84 Election Returns

M'lang, Cotabato Province's election officer
 proclaims the burgeoning town mayor-elect
 lawyer Russel M. Abonado.

Duterte still win even Roxas, Binay withdraw

By Mortz C. Ortigoza

 Three days before the May 9 presidential election, I read President Benigno Aquino and political analyst Popoy de Vera exhorted presidential aspirant Mar Roxas particularly to make an exemplary sacrifice to save this country from the perceive looming dictatorial government of presidential front runner Rodrigo Duterte.

President Aquino analyzed as quoted by the Philippine Inquirer last May 7: “It behooves everybody to try and get together and ensure that instead of thinking about what shall we do if everything he says is exactly what he intends to do, why don’t we remove that problem or that threat or that insecurity by uniting the 70 and defeating the 30?”.

Roxas echoed the president’s exhortation last Friday by calling Poe to discuss a possible alliance in order to avoid a victory from current frontrunner Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte.

De Vera opined last Saturday at DZMM as quoted by Tempo newspaper:

“Mathematically and based on survey data, mas mananalo yung kung si Mar ang mag-gigive way kay Grace Poe rather than Grace Poe giving way to Mar,” De Vera said.

The political analyst went on to cite survey data on second-choice candidates.

“Doon sa survey na ginawa, tinanong ‘yung mga supporters ng mga kandidato, kung hindi tumuloy ‘yung first choice na presidential candidate, sino and second choice niyo. Doon sa mga nagsabi na si Mar ang first choice nila, 41% sa kanila ang second choice nila si Grace,” De Vera explained.

How Filipino politician buys votes

P40M spent for a P70K monthly job in 3 years

By Mortz C. Ortigoza

“Elective post is for the rich only,” I told a mayoralty bet as he and his employees scan the names of their voters on the list and count the corresponding P1000 each of them after they evaluated the authenticity that the names are their supporters.

“The other day, there were six thousand voters here to get their P1000,” he told me at his house that was teeming with voters four days before the May 9 election.
“Grabe, that’s P6 million already!” I quipped.
“But we change our system because policemen were hot on our trail. Our leaders instead come here and get the monies for distribution in the different villages. Everybody knows I give P1000. My opponent buys votes for P300 to P500”.
Both he and the opponent are successful businessmen.
“I want to beat him; I want to see how deep  his financial chest is. Today, I will be going to the bank to withdraw P20 million,” he told me.
My friend cited that the P1000 he gave was not all from his pocket.
“Half of that is from my patron. He used to give P400 counterpart to the P400 that I give to a voter. But I told him my opponent buys vote for P500 each thus he acquiesced to the P500.'
He told me his patron provides only for the 40% of the 60,000 voters.

Lacson: Budget reform advocacy to end selective releases of funds to LGUs

GENERAL SANTOS CITY – Former Sen. Panfilo M. Lacson is seeking to finally end the selective release of funds for local government units’ development projects, through his advocacy pushing reforms in the budgeting system.

In an interview here, Lacson said he is fine-tuning the Budget Reform Advocacy for Village Empowerment (BRAVE) to include safeguards that will deter officials from blocking or delaying the release of such funds to LGUs that are not their political allies.

“Lalagyan natin ng safeguard to see to it na ang provisions ng law in this regard will be ma-implement … Ito talagang nonpartisan ito. This is for the good of the entire country and whether kalaban, kaalyado, dapat may bababa na pondo sa kanila for their development,” he said.

He said the blocking or delaying of fund releases would be tantamount to patronage politics where LGUs will be forced to beg for funds, to the extent of moving over to the ruling political party.

“Hindi pupuwede (na) babalik tayo sa patronage politics at magmamalimos na naman,” he said.

Also, Lacson said he is considering suggestions from local government officials to streamline the process by designating an agency to handle follow-up requests by LGUs for funding.

These safeguards and inputs from LGUs are being included in a proposed Budget Reform Act that he will file, should he be elected to the Senate.

Duterte, Cayetano on coup, assassination

Amid the rumors that presidential front runner Rodrigo Duterte hid billions of pesos on his BPI accounts, President Benigno Aquino III to undermine the May 9 presidential election in favor of Administration backed  Liberal Party's presidential aspirant Mar Roxas, vice presidential candidate Antonio Trillanes threat that groups in the military will grab power to prevent the communist friendly Duterte to assume the presidency, and speculation in the social media that the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the U.S Central Intelligence Agency collude, just like in Chile and South Vietnam, to assassinate the presidential front runner,  here is an excerpt of my interviews with Duterte and his vice presidential bet, my friend, Senator Alan Peter Cayetano about their take on these rumors just after the third presidential debate held in Dagupan City.

Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte (C) and Senator Alan
 Peter Cayetano (R). PHOTO CREDIT: PhilStar.com

MORTZ ORTIGOZA (ME): There were rumblings among the military that they would not allow a Duterte Administration to assume power on July 1. Several observers said that the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the CIA and would collude to topple down a President Duterte because he is identified with the communist and would be a threat to the military alignment of countries in the region versus Mainland China. What’s your take?

SEN. CAYETANO: Unang una Diyos lang ang may alam kung sino talaga ang magiging president. Pangalawa hinde dapat makialam ang mga foreign countries because we have our national interest. We love our alliances with other countries but they should allow Filipinos that Filipinos chose their president.